Saturday, August 06, 2005

Despite the fact that none of you care, here are my predictions for the IAAF World Championships taking place starting later on today:

  • The winner of the women's 10,000 will run under 30 minutes. Paula Radcliffe will win either silver or bronze. The other two medallists will be Ethiopian. I won't pretend to be savvy enough to be able to differentiate between them.
  • Kenenisa Bekele will win the men's 10,000. The Ethiopians will sweep with Dinkessa taking silver and Gebremariam bronze. This will be, as always, worth taping and watching in awe repeatedly.
  • Bekele will run a smarter race tactically in the 5,000 and drop everyone after about two miles, finally getting the 5/10 double he has sought but missed in each of the last two years. This will be the most interesting race of the championships.
  • Craig Mottram will be fourth or fifth. The 5,000 is, as always, a stacked field.
  • Ivan Heshko will win the 1500, scoring one for the white guys. Alan Webb will be in the final, but not a factor by any stretch of the imagination.
  • Paula Radcliffe will win the marathon. She is that good.
  • Borzakovskiy wins again in the 800 after his victory at the Olympics. It's always a risky proposition with him, but it's hard to root against him.
  • No American (or Canadian, for that matter) will medal in a distance event (800 and up).
  • In the men's marathon, Baldini is the Olympic champion and has a good tactical pedigree. London winner Martin Lel, defeating perhaps the most stacked marathon field to ever toe a line this April, will also be present. Many are tapping Kenyan Robert Cheboror (2:06:23) as the potential winners. I will predict that absolutely no one that any reasonable observer pegged as the champion will be the winner, including defending champion Jouad Gharib.
  • The women's 5k will be a rout and not unlike the men's 10k.