Saturday, August 06, 2005
Despite the fact that none of you care, here are my predictions for the IAAF World Championships taking place starting later on today:
The winner of the women's 10,000 will run under 30 minutes. Paula Radcliffe will win either silver or bronze. The other two medallists will be Ethiopian. I won't pretend to be savvy enough to be able to differentiate between them. Kenenisa Bekele will win the men's 10,000. The Ethiopians will sweep with Dinkessa taking silver and Gebremariam bronze. This will be, as always, worth taping and watching in awe repeatedly. Bekele will run a smarter race tactically in the 5,000 and drop everyone after about two miles, finally getting the 5/10 double he has sought but missed in each of the last two years. This will be the most interesting race of the championships. Craig Mottram will be fourth or fifth. The 5,000 is, as always, a stacked field. Ivan Heshko will win the 1500, scoring one for the white guys. Alan Webb will be in the final, but not a factor by any stretch of the imagination. Paula Radcliffe will win the marathon. She is that good. Borzakovskiy wins again in the 800 after his victory at the Olympics. It's always a risky proposition with him, but it's hard to root against him. No American (or Canadian, for that matter) will medal in a distance event (800 and up). In the men's marathon, Baldini is the Olympic champion and has a good tactical pedigree. London winner Martin Lel, defeating perhaps the most stacked marathon field to ever toe a line this April, will also be present. Many are tapping Kenyan Robert Cheboror (2:06:23) as the potential winners. I will predict that absolutely no one that any reasonable observer pegged as the champion will be the winner, including defending champion Jouad Gharib. The women's 5k will be a rout and not unlike the men's 10k.