Monday, April 14, 2008

If you had bet any money on anyone other than Martin Lel to win today's London Marathon, you would have lost. It's obvious that the past is the best predictor of the future, but I still think I went with the safe pick. You just can't expect someone to keep winning over and over. Streaks tend to end, and winning three major marathons in a row is a long streak. I would have guessed that Joe DiMaggio would not extend his streak to 55 games, 56 games or 57 games. This streak, however, is a bit like Johnny Vander Meer's back-to-back no-hitters. You knew he wasn't going to extend that one. Similarly, after watching him dominate the world's best today, I'm going to go ahead and guarantee that Martin Lel will not win the Olympic marathon. He just can't keep winning.

There's excellent coverage of London over at the always excellent Science of Sport, including a discussion on whether Lel is now the greatest marathoner ever.

No comments: