Monday, January 18, 2010

Yen holds its own

News reports indicate that the Japanese yen closed down slightly after Monday's trading, but as far as I'm concerned, the yen should hold its head high. My 500-yen coin was 2 for 4 in picking the outcome of this weekend's playoff games, beating my dismal 1-3. CNN's Peter King correctly predicted two of four games this week and this team of experts at ESPN wasn't much better.

Seven of the eight experts at ESPN were 2-2 or worse. ESPN's Accuscore computer was 3-1, as was the mass wisdom of ESPN's SportsNation. If you'd picked home teams in New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota and San Diego, you would have been 3-1. If you did it the week before as well, you'd be 5-3, as good as anyone at ESPN. Instead, if you followed my muddled thought process, you'd land at 2-6. In my defense, I haven't seen any football in a month.

Still, this is a classic case of thinking you know more than you do. From a state of ignorance, it's best to go with the knowledge that home teams win two-thirds of the time. What held me back was looking too simple and picking a heavy favourite to win when signs for an upset may have been there. You look smarter picking one upset than you do correctly picking a bunch of routs.

That's why I'm going to go ahead and make the stupid, simple Super Bowl pick that a 9-year-old could have made in October: Colts vs Saints. Picking like a 9-year-old explains how I would have been 11-0 in the 1997 playoffs if the Giants hadn't blown a 9-point lead with less than two minutes to go, at home no less.

The coin says Colts and Vikings.

I don't feel too bad for not having seen any playoff games. Aside from two of them, plus the one where the Patriots lost, the rest have been boring routs.

2 comments:

Jennifer said...

Re: your last sentence:

true, but the good games (arizona vs GB and jets vs SD) were very good. the patriots game was ugly.

Jennifer said...

The other thing about this weekend-
I picked all the underdogs partly just because I didn't feel like thinking about it (thinking didn't work last week) but also because for my pool I had the spread. Theoretically, with the spread, it's 50-50 anyway, right? And I thought that even if the favoured team won, the games had a chance to be close. In the first three games the favoured team didn't just win-- they blew the underdogs away. It was difficult to watch such bad football and almost embarrassing to watch the losers get pummeled.